Will John's air conditioner test find at least 50% better temperature delta with two hoses compared to one hose?

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resolved Jun 22

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Details on LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AMmqk74zWmvP8tXEJ/preregistration-air-conditioner-test

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Update: took a first pass at this today, experiment ran into some issues (including one issue which was pre-registered as an invalidate-and-retry condition). Details and current planned changes for the next attempt are here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/puv8fRDCH9jx5yhbX/johnswentworth-s-shortform?commentId=AeKtgW5JWWaK8qfdJ

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isn't john the one running the experiment? it seems like he'll bestrongly motivated to avoid issues with the cardboard hose, and in any case will be pricing that into his 90%

I feel like people are really neglecting the cardboard hose component here. Even if John's arguments seem much more trustworthy, I put decent probability on a janky cardboard hose setup causing efficiency loss in itself.

idk anything about ac but it seems like swentworth has put a lot more thought into this compared to christiano; if he thinks it's 90% then its probably a buy at 55

I just added M$ 50 of liquidity. Can't wait to see the results

I am not an engineer or physicist. I reckon the single host has a compensating advantage. The temp difference between the hot part of the heat exchange and the passing air will be higher for a single hose. Lets say outside temp is 40c, inside is 25c, maybe heat coil is 60c? then there is a 35c difference instead of 20c. So here it will be more effective.

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