John Smith's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.32
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when John Smith bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will The Economist publish an article about the 2023 Polish election before the end of the week (20th Aug incl.)?YESṀ10
- 2023 Chess Championship: Will there be MORE drawn games than with decisive results?YESṀ10
- Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?NOṀ10
80%
90%
- Will the government of any country be involuntarily dissolved or overthrown before September 1?YESṀ600
- Will the government of any country be involuntarily dissolved or overthrown before September 1?YESṀ200
- Will the government of any country be involuntarily dissolved or overthrown before September 1?YESṀ200
95%
97%