John Gaius's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.56
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when John Gaius bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024?NOṀ20
- Will anyone run for political office with the promise of outsourcing all their decision-making to an AI before 2025?YESṀ10
- Will OpenAI close or limit the free version of Chat GPT to five or fewer requests per day by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%