Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the political actions of Dutch politician Mona Keijzer between her departure from the BBB in February 2026 and December 31, 2027, 23:59 CET.

Only one option can resolve YES. The outcomes are defined as follows:

• 1. Mona Keijzer will create a new political party: Resolves YES if Keijzer officially registers a new political party with the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad) or publicly launches and leads a new distinct political party she created or it's announced* she's part of a new political party within 72 hours of the public launch of this new political party. Rebranding her current one-person faction into an officially registered political party with an active organization/intent to run in future elections will qualify. *Announced by Mona Keijzer herself or through a consensus of credible media, where (only) the first media report of Keijzer being part of this new political party needs to be within 72 hours.

• Mona Keijzer will join De Nederlandse Alliantie: Resolves YES if Keijzer officially joins De Nederlandse Alliantie (DNA), by registering as a member of the party, or by formally joining/merging her parliamentary faction with the DNA faction, or by announcing she'll be on the ballot for DNA for a public election.

• Mona Keijzer will join JA21: Resolves YES if Keijzer officially joins JA21, either by registering as a member of the party or by registering as a member of the party, or by formally joining/merging her parliamentary faction with the JA21 faction, or by announcing she'll be on the ballot for JA21 for a public election.

• Mona Keijzer will join a political party, but it won't be JA21 or De Nederlandse Alliantie: Resolves YES if Keijzer officially joins any other registered Dutch political party (such as PVV, VVD, CDA, BBB, SGP, FVD, etc., or any other newly formed party not created by herself).

• Mona Keijzer won't join or create any political party by EOY 2027: Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, she has neither joined an existing political party nor joined the ballot for a political party nor created/registered a new one (remaining as an independent MP or leaving political office entirely).

Verification: Resolutions will be verified using official announcements from Keijzer, reputable Dutch news outlets (such as NOS, De Volkskrant, De Telegraaf, Trouw), and the registry of the Kiesraad.

Background

In February 2026, Dutch MP and former Vice Prime Minister/Housing Minister Mona Keijzer left the BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) after being passed over for the party leadership in favor of Henk Vermeer. She formalized her split in March 2026 and currently sits in the House of Representatives as an independent MP leading her own faction ("Lid Keijzer" / "Groep Keijzer").

Following her departure, speculation has risen regarding her political future. Some commentators speculate she may launch her own party, while others look to potential alignments on the conservative right, such as with JA21 or the newly established "De Nederlandse Alliantie" (DNA) formed by PVV defectors in April 2026.

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