Will I get into the LSE Econ PhD program?

This market resolves conditional on me applying.

I am currently in the second semester of my master's programme in economics at the University of Mannheim, one of the two best German universities for economics. My undergraduate GPA was 3.8 and my GPA after the first semester is 3.7, but will probably improve slightly. I will mainly take courses in econometrics and also one in real analysis. I have a job as a research assistant and will probably get a good LOR from that but the prof is not well known. I will probably apply in autumn 2025. I'm happy to answer further questions in the comments :)

Get แน€600 play money