Joghn's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.97
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Joghn bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will UO flight 849 from Tokyo to Hong Kong on 2023-09-21 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?YESṀ120
- Will 96 be the highest metascore of any video game released in 2023?YESṀ100
- Will UO flight 821 from Okinawa to Hong Kong on 2023-09-21 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?YESṀ100