Joel McGuire's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.23
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Joel McGuire bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will Ron DeSantis suspend his presidential campaign before 'Super Tuesday' in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries?YESṀ100
- Will The Colorado Supreme Court Decision Barring Trump from Running in 2024 Be Overturned by the US Supreme Court?YESṀ80
- Will the S&P 500 close higher on November 22 than it closed on November 21?YESṀ35
80%
90%
95%
97%