This paper about the deepest division of the evolutionary branching of the animal family tree suggests that ctenophores as opposed to sponges are the "sister group to other animals" i.e. the earliest split. So far it seems very convincing to me. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05936-6#Sec2

Will its thesis (that ctenophores are the sister group to all other animals) be the scientific consensus in 2029?

I will resolve based on looking at its citations and checking to see if any of them are 1. strongly critical and 2. published in Nature, Science or Cell, in which case I will resolve No, otherwise Yes.

The intention of this is that to qualify as a consensus (by my definition) it has to be unchallenged by the "canonical" sources.

"Strongly critical" is of course slightly subjective, but generally statements to the effect that the original does not support its thesis, as opposed to just being overconfident, is what I am looking for.

Will resolve N/A if two or more of those journals no longer exist.

I will not trade on this market.