Will we get a male puppy?
9
8
Ṁ108
resolved May 24
Resolved
YES
Miti and I are choosing a puppy tomorrow. Will it be male? The base rate in the litter is 5/7; my current and only dog is female, Miti's was male.
Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO
Respect for not leaving any money on the table. I _think_ you actually get the rest of the liquidity pool back as a creator, fwiw, so buying up the remaining shares isn't necessary. But it might help cement your leaderboard position...?
predicted YES
@Austin ah! how does it help cement leaderboard position?
predicted NO
I'm only 60% confident in this, but it might be the case that liquidity transfers are excluded from profits, whereas winning in your own market counts for the leaderboard?
predicted YES
@Austin good enough for me...
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
We're getting a boy!!
I think you will pick on other factors not sex, so 5/7 odds is about right.
Dear Joel, It has come to Manifold Market's attention you will be acquiring a new puppy shortly. We would like to inform you that we have a company policy that states that any mention of a puppy on our website is subjected to "puppy tax". Please provide photos of said puppy when available. Thank you The Manifold Markets team ps. Make a market on what you will name the puppy???
bought Ṁ5 of NO
Buying a small amount of NO on the theory that since the female puppies are rarer, they may seem more special in the litter and you may be more drawn to them compared to the males
bought Ṁ15 of NO
@Austin Bingo

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