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MANIFOLD
On which month will I next arrive in the US?
4
Ṁ275Ṁ4.1k
resolved Sep 24
100%96%
September 2023
0.0%
July 2023
0.0%
August 2023
1.0%
October 2023
0.4%
November 2023
0.2%
December 2023
2.0%
Beyond 2023 or never

Market resolves to the month during which I next arrive in the US.

  • Fine for the arrival to be on any visa type.

  • 50 states only.

  • Resolves to "Beyond 2023 or never" if I don't arrive by resolution date.

Info about the situation:

  • UK citizen with valid ESTA.

  • Last left the US in late April 2023; spent ~30% of the previous year there on ESTA, lived there for the ~4 years before that.

  • Currently in the process of obtaining an O-1 visa, waiting to get recommendation letters signed.

Market context
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