Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve to the date (UTC) on which the FBI or the leading local law enforcement agency (such as the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department) officially announces that the investigation into Senator Lindsey Graham's death has been completed, concluded, or closed.

• "Completion" is defined as:

  • An official public statement or report from the investigating agency declaring the investigation is closed or concluded (e.g., confirming a natural death with no foul play, or releasing a final investigative report).

  • Or, if criminal charges are filed in connection with his death, the date on which a final court verdict is rendered or the charges are otherwise resolved.

• Resolution will be based on the date of the first credible news report (such as AP, Reuters, or other major national news outlets) or official press release confirming the case's official closure.

• If multiple agencies are conducting separate investigations, the market will resolve to the date on which the primary federal investigation (by the FBI) is officially closed.

Background

• On July 11, 2026, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) died suddenly at his Capitol Hill home at the age of 71.

• Preliminary examiner findings released on July 12, 2026, indicated the cause of death was an aortic dissection arising from arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

• Due to the sudden nature of his death shortly after a high-profile trip to Ukraine, as well as recent geopolitical tensions, FBI Director Kash Patel announced on July 12, 2026, that the FBI is assisting local authorities in investigating the circumstances. Officials have noted there is currently no evidence of foul play or foreign involvement.

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