Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is alive on March 30, 2026. This market resolves NO if Trump dies before or on March 30, 2026. Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death.

Background

Trump is 79 years old and became the oldest person in American history to become president upon his second inauguration in 2025. As of January 2026, Trump has been noted as having a recent history of dozing during public appearances and requesting to attend fewer, more important meetings. In early March 2026, Trump was photographed with a dark red rash on his neck, and his physician issued a statement saying he was using medicated cream as a preventative treatment.

Considerations

The timeframe for this market is extremely short (approximately 8 days from today). Given Trump's age and the various health concerns that have been publicly documented, the baseline probability of death in any 8-day period for a 79-year-old is very low but non-zero. No specific acute health crisis has been publicly reported that would suggest elevated mortality risk in this specific timeframe.