Jim Hays's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.63
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jim Hays bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will this market reach 200 traders by the end of 2023?YESṀ260
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ200
- Will proof of an optimal packing of 17 or fewer squares in a square be shown for any currently unproved packing before 2024?YESṀ100
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%