This is the same question as below, but for Trump only. Will Trump gain the electoral college in the following seven states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona?
https://manifold.markets/bagelfan/someone-sweeps-seven-swing-states
Will close the day before the election on midnight PST 11/4.
@SentientTree that may be true, but if he loses just one swing state state by a tiny margin and wins the rest, the market resolves no.
@SentientTree both are on the order of 30%
The popular vote and winning all swing states are correlated heavily but if you isolate the two events into their orthogonal parts.
The popular vote is more about the margins in New York, California and whether the solid Red states shift left or right.
I think models like Silver, 538 would disagree with you.
It essentially depends on how much you think the swing states are correlated amongst themselves and to the NPV.
20% chance according to the Silver Bulletin
Here is the market considering only Harris.
https://manifold.markets/SpaceboyLuke/subsidized-10k-will-all-seven-state