Jesus Of Sivar's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.14
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jesus Of Sivar bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Kevin McCarthy be the next Speaker of the House?YESṀ100
- Will Phase II - Rapamycin/Acarbose significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)YESṀ100
- Will Russia be accused of sabotaging Nord Stream 1 and/or Nord Stream 2 in 2022?NOṀ100
95%
97%