Will the implied probability of this market be >50%, when averaged over the last 24 hours?

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Ṁ4424

resolved Feb 22

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I'm taking the average over the last day to try to prevent the strategy used in https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/i-have-been-entrusted-with-an-ai-in. Technical details: I will integrate the implied probability from 2/20 23:59:00 EST to 2/21 23:59:00 EST and divide the result by 24 hours. The market will resolve YES if it's above 50% and NO if it's below 50%. Feb 21, 12:35am: The final 24 hours started 35 minutes ago!

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Looks like we are headed towards NO, but it's too early to judge.

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