Grade: A, Score: -0.48
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jelle bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- Will there be at least 3 more people holding YES shares than holding NO shares at market close?YESṀ1,945
- This market resolves YES if there are 100+ unique traders by time of closing March 1st.YESṀ1,750
- Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in March?YESṀ1,000