Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
What will the largest family of the Qwen 4 model score on artifical analysis benchmark
1
Ṁ225Ṁ140
2027
47.3 points
expected
4%
Below 35
18%
[35,40[
23%
[40,45[
23%
[45,50[
13%
[50,55[
7%
[55,60[
6%
[60,65[
5%
Above or at 65

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the numerical score achieved by the largest and most capable model in the primary Qwen 4 model release on the Artificial Analysis LLM Leaderboard.

  • Target Metric: The score corresponds to the headline Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or primary quality/intelligence score listed on the model's Artificial Analysis profile/leaderboard entry).

  • Model Definition:

    • The model must be part of the initial Qwen 4 base/instruct family release by Alibaba/Qwen team bearing the major version identifier "4" (e.g., Qwen4-Max, or equivalent flagship designation).

    • Subsequent point-release updates or refreshes (such as "Qwen 4.1", "Qwen 4.5", etc.) will not be considered; only the largest, flagship model from the original Qwen 4 release counts.

    • If multiple variants of the flagship model are tested (e.g., different API providers or reasoning effort levels), the entry with the highest Intelligence Index score on Artificial Analysis will be used.

  • Timeline & Inconclusive Clause: If no model belonging to the primary Qwen 4 family has been evaluated and listed on Artificial Analysis by December 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve Inconclusive / N/A.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!