Jechto's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.7
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jechto bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
- Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident before 2024?NOṀ20
- A defendant in a felony case in the United States will use an "AI Told Me to Do It" defense before the end of 2023YESṀ10
- Will we have evidence that SBF and Caroline became romantically involved after she handed him over to the feds by the date the SBF biography written by Michael Lewis is published?NOṀ10
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%