Javier Chavez's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -10.73
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Javier Chavez bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?YESṀ30
- Michael Lewis book "Going Infinite" on SBF will be #1 on NYTimes bestseller list for at least 1 week before mid 2024YESṀ20
- Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) Close Higher October 2nd Than The Close Of October 1st? [ṀANA PRIZE LEADERBOARD]YESṀ10
80%
90%