Conditional on OpenAI releasing an open-source LLM in 2025, will it exceed o3-mini in AIME 2025 score?
7
1kṀ302Dec 31
58%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
o3-mini scored 86.5%
https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/
Will resolve according to the first open-source LLM OpenAI releases in 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI model surpasses o3's matharena.ai 88% Overall score by July 1, 2025?
5% chance
Will the best AI score on the IMO 2025 be more like AlphaProof or o3?
Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?
44% chance
If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?
49% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
OpenAI to release model weights by EOY?
83% chance
Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?
99% chance
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?
45% chance
Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?
86% chance