Jaromír Svoboda's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.07
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jaromír Svoboda bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will Cillian Murphy say the exact phrase, "I am become death, the destroyer of worlds," in the movie "Oppenheimer"YESṀ1,000
- Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?NOṀ1,000
- Will the movie Oppenheimer (2023) get higher than a 79% overall critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes by July 22st 2023?YESṀ900
99%
- Will Cillian Murphy say the exact phrase, "I am become death, the destroyer of worlds," in the movie "Oppenheimer"YESṀ2,500
- Will the movie Oppenheimer (2023) get higher than a 79% overall critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes by July 22st 2023?YESṀ2,100
- Will 'Barbie' gross over $150m on opening weekend?YESṀ1,000