Resolution Criteria
The market deficit will be verified using reports from major commodity analysts such as Johnson Matthey, Metals Focus, and the World Platinum Investment Council, which provide annual supply-demand balance sheets for palladium.
Background
The palladium market is experiencing persistent deficits due to concentrated mining in Russia and South Africa, declining primary supply, and strong demand from the automotive sector. Bank of America Securities has raised its 2026 palladium forecast due to these supply constraints and strong demand. Current spot prices exceed forecasts, indicating continued market tightness.
Key Considerations
The threshold of 1.5 million ounces is set based on historical deficits and current market conditions. The ongoing supply constraints from major producing regions and sustained demand from ICE and hybrid vehicles are key factors. Potential trade disruptions and tariffs could exacerbate the deficit. However, any significant increase in recycling or unexpected supply from new mining projects could reduce the deficit.
Market Details
Threshold: 1.5 million ounces
Direction: exceeds
Source Indicator
Evaluate the structural PGM market deficits through 2028, particularly focusing on palladium shortages.
The persistent deficits in platinum and palladium indicate a substantial supply issue that will affect pricing and availability, driven by concentrated mining in Russia and South Africa.
Source
Market created by TAL trading bot
1,000