Will Manifold pay out new trader bonuses based on unique users *per day* on Oct 1st?
Oct 2

For example, instead of getting 5 mana for a new trader that bet on your market, you could get 1 mana each day that trader bet on your market.

This aligns incentives toward creating markets of ongoing value where people keep coming back to bet, which more closely aligns with our daily active users goal.

Will we do this? Will we keep it? Resolves based on if we use this system for mana or for the partnership program payouts on Oct 1st this year.

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What's the average number of times someone bets on a market if they they choose to participate ? Does the API give this

I like this but also worry about the effect on short-term markets, which we badly need more of.

It's easy for someone to make a market about a famous event months away, while it often takes hard work and experience to come up with an interesting market about something short-term.

Maybe market creation cost and/or trader bonuses should vary depending on the expected resolution date of the market, if that date was locked in and not something that could be moved?

I think if you're not careful you could end up overly incentivizing markets like "will 2024 be hotter than 2023?"

There's new information on the question every day, so people keep coming back to bet. But it's not really the most exciting thing. And if you lower trader bonuses, you might steer more people away from markets that resolve and the end of this month and towards markets that resolve at the end of this year.

@Joshua We could do some kind of combo: +M3 for a new trader, and +M1 thereafter for each new day they bet in the market.

@JamesGrugett Might have to go to M0.5 per day or this could get to be a really big bonus...

Yeah I hesitate to even speculate on what values makes sense without seeing how the numbers would have worked on a past market. It does seem good to incentivize markets that get regular re-engagement though!

I like this! It does hurt short term markets, but does benefit niche communities. A question that 3 people deeply care about can still turn a profit if there’s ongoing betting.

I think the trader bonus mechanic works best when it’s rewarding the most interesting and engaging markets. This feels closer to measuring “interestingness” than the current system.

It might be necessary to cap the total amount given per user to prevent manipulation (maybe 10 mana?) but overall I think this is worth trying out

well guess i better get ready to put the sandbags back on @TonyPepperoni


What do you think? Should we change trader bonuses to be for daily traders on your markets?

@JamesGrugett this makes short term stuff pretty hard to break even on, right

@JamesGrugett curious what stats you have on how often people return, im weird and only go back to check up less often when it is close to resolution