Will I move to the Bay Area by April 1st?
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200
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
YES

I moved to Austin, TX during the pandemic (January 2021), and I've since come to really like this city. The quality of life is great, and there's so many restaurants and food trucks within walking distance of my current place on East 6th St. It's also a budding tech city — for instance, Google just finished constructing a mega-skyscraper downtown.

But San Francisco is still the center of tech. Working on Manifold Markets, it seems like I'm missing out on meeting many cool and talented people because they are mostly still in the Bay Area.

Will I move to the Bay Area, California in the next ~6 months? My lease is up in Austin on February 7th 2023.

Let me know in the comments what you think I should do! I'm going to try out our fancy new Comment Bounty feature to award the best comment.

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Are you considering options besides Austin and the Bay?

predicted YES

@Alice I think New York would also be awesome, but I don't really know that many people there.

Plus, I feel Manifold Markets has the spirit of the West Coast — open, quirky, idealistic!

@JamesGrugett Is it more important to live near people you already know or people you'd like to meet? How do you like to meet and spend time with people?

predicted YES

@Alice Great questions. I think the Bay has the greatest density of interesting people, maybe in the world! In that sense, it has both more people I already know and more people I'd like to meet.


Secondly, it's often easier to meet people if you know some already.

But in the abstract, I guess meeting new people is still more important to me than living near people I know, given my current life stage.

Regarding how I like to meet and spend time with people, I guess meeting through friends and spending time on activities, like playing board games or climbing / hiking or just going out for lunch.

Would you answer these questions similarly?

@JamesGrugett Yeah, if you prefer to meet people through mutual friends and shared activities, it makes sense to go where you already have existing friends and where your activities of choice are popular. I don't know about Austin, but San Francisco fits the bill. Even within a city, maximizing your proximity to these things makes a world of difference. Living within a few blocks of your friends and becoming a regular at your neighborhood board game cafe or climbing gym allows for chance encounters and repeated interactions.

@JamesGrugett As for how I'd answer, I'm best at meeting people one-on-one, with enough time to get to know them more deeply. Sometimes I'm introduced by a friend, like you mentioned, but I also love talking to strangers. I ask passersby for directions or smile at neighbors walking their dogs and sometimes we spend the rest of the day together, and sometimes, if we're lucky, we end up being close for years. On the flip side, I'm terrible at parties and have a hard time connecting with large groups. So if I were choosing a city, I'd optimize for walkability where hopefully I can cross paths with interesting people, and I shouldn't optimize for nightlife.

That said, I'm writing this from car-centric Cupertino where there's absolutely no one to run into on the street and very few of the community spaces I love. So, don't move to the South Bay.

predicted YES

@Alice Thanks, Alice! I'll have to try talking to more strangers :-D

And yes, I was in South Bay as well before Austin, so you can imagine why I moved haha.

@JamesGrugett Yeah, life in the South Bay feels very siloed. I don't think suburbs need to be that way inherently, but there isn't a strong sense of community down here.

How do you feel about friends coming and going? San Francisco isn't at the most extreme end of the spectrum, like Doha or Dubai, but there is a decent amount of turnover.

What other criteria factor into where you want to live? Do you have any dealbreakers?

predicted YES

@Alice I thought about this more when picking Austin.


Global cities like Singapore, Dubai, and London are appealing because of the mix of cultures, novelty, and high activity level.

But they don't quite seem like places to settle down in, because I would be very disconnected from the US. My personal and business ties to the US are stronger than ever. For example, it would be hard to not live in a similar timezone to most of our employees.

I would want to be in a place where friends would like to visit. Austin is decent for this! In fact, there's a huge scene here for hosting bachelor/bachelorette parties because Austin is a cool city.

Also, before, cost of living was a big factor so as to extend our runway, but that may no longer be the case if Manifold is doing well haha!

Now, it seems clear that living near more tech nerds and other ambitious founders (and VCs) is more important.

predicted YES

@Alice Are you considering moving, Alice? And what's your criteria? Maybe we should both move to SF

@JamesGrugett That makes sense. Would you also consider cities like Seattle then?

I can see the April fool’s joke from a mile away

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I think the food scene in Austin is quite good (taco trucks are better than any tacos I've found in SF). But imo the most important thing about a place you live is the people you surround yourself with -- and SF still takes the cake here.

I'm especially excited by community developments like https://neighborhoodsf.com/ and the associated https://www.thesfcommons.com/ -- they're excellent for spontaneously meeting awesome people.

Plus, SF is a 20m train ride away from Berkeley downtown, which has its own set of cool people (more of an EA and rationalist hub).

@Austin Noisebridge is also an excellent community and makerspace!

I love noisebridge!

predicted YES

@Austin Thanks for the suggestions! Made another market on which community group house I'd join: