What will Manifold's ND1 retention be on Oct 1st?
12
380Ṁ3468
resolved Nov 17
100%94%
0-15%
1.0%
15-20%
5%
20-25%
0.0%
30%+

We've come to think that new user retention is our highest priority.

Today, we have just under 15% of users come back the day after they sign up to place a bet. That is our ND1 (New user Day 1) metric.

What will it be in 1 month?

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ2,109
2Ṁ85
3Ṁ85
4Ṁ78
5Ṁ42
Sort by:

@Gen is this a question you are able to answer, or else confirm that it would need to N/A

@Eliza @Gen one last try before N/A in case this is something you know how to figure out

@Eliza I should be able to check this figure..

@Eliza Sorry guys. I'm pretty sure it's the first bucket. This also happened to be including views, which we normally don't include. Otherwise the ND1 would be much lower.

Ok, looked up ND1 for October 1st (and the previous week). It was 11.8%.

Ok so from what I can tell, for the original sample to include 9600 signups it was showing an average nd1 retention from at least 30 days prior (it looks like it included about 45 days)

Either way, any amount of days that works would put this figure into the 0-15% range, so you can resolve to that.

edit: this comment posted when I tried to comment again, so now idk what's happening lol

@JamesGrugett I tried to comment but I guess it didn't post

it looks like your original figure was using ~45 days of data for it to include 9.6k signups

either way, retention has fallen and is in the 1st bucket (it's the same if you include views + dau actions)

afaik this must resolve N/A as this metric has been removed. I'm not sure if it was still available on Oct 1st tho.

@JamesGrugett Please resolve

For me the habit formation and frequency of checking the site increased gradually. It takes a few cycles of placing bets and seeing the outcomes.

Why is this metric so different from the one on the public dashboard? At the time that this was posted the public metric was at ~2%.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules