Where did we drop the ball? The point of this isn't to point fingers or assign blame, but rather to identify where our processes and strategy are not serving us well.
Mostly, this market is for the Manifold team; don't expect the probabilities, etc to mean much other than like a subjective vote on how much you agree with a particular statement, or how much you want to discuss it.
Last time: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/august-retro-what-could-have-gone-b
1,000
3.00
@Austin I feel like this keeps getting put off for some reason and I am not totally sure why unless it's SUPER hard to solve.
@ian Limit orders are still kind of scary; doesn't seem hard to add
[J] Not that hard, could do next quarter
[S] More UI and technical complexity [A] +1
[A] Doesn't feel like a subreddit. Needs to foster community. A place to talk to each other.
Might need to promote groups more. Make it something they want to check every day. Something to figure out over the next quarter.
[F] Show new posts on overview page. Show recent comments in a section on overview.
[A] Manifold team group where we dogfood the group and community features. Turn off Discord ([J] Hmm...)
[S] Groups should be better at both categorization and dashboard use case.
[J] Groups usage should improve with a larger userbase
[c] Might be better if people don't silo into their own communities
[J] We're trying -- they're on the homepage so you can click into them
[D] Homepage does a good job of showing the most interesting markets, so people don't click in to a group
[F] Reason to join a group, it's only since yesterday since Groups have an overview page, etc. Now would they get used more? Fede is happy with the feature set now, so now's the time to curate groups, and get others to do so as well
@JamesGrugett it feels too hard to access them on Manifold itself.
Also no one really shares groups/posts yet on Twitter. People just share markets (and occasionally will include the group several comments into the thread).
[J] From the creator's perspective: they love this, it matches the question they have in their head
But MCM/FR haven't been good to trade on. Whenever you're creating a MCM, it would have been better as binary markets for the outcomes
Can have limit orders on binary markets; same is true of numeric markets.
Could create binary markets on certain thresholds (doesn't give as much info), better experience for traders
But our messaging is bad (we didn't explain this to users), and we haven't created the alternative (first-class feature for a group of binary markets), would replace MCM and Numeric.
@SG [s] Someone will share a market on Twitter, but it will only have like 100 liquidity.
[d] Like the one shared on Marginal Revolution. Until I added some.
[c] Users could place limit orders, but they don't.
[d] Scared because there could be news that kills them.
[i] Limit orders should have an expiration date option.
[A] Adds complexity.
[A] Haven't seen any concrete bad results from lack of liquidity.
[J] Not enough liquidity in general
[d] Makes site seem less trusworthy
@LivInTheLookingGlass we were originally planning on replacing with futures-based numeric markets, but I dropped the ball on that :(
@stone completely ignored...
Won't fix until a big problem? https://manifold.markets/stone/will-there-be-a-report-button-withi
@stone Sorry didnt mean to ignore you! This is mostly an internal thing, so although we appreciate the feedback we might not necessarily see/interact with it if it was commented after our standup.
Spam is definitely an issue but we've been unlisting it as fast as we can (still not great), but there isnt a clear way to fix it. Also it overall is that problematic right now, will prioritise it if it becomes a bigger problem.