Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by September 30th 2023?
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resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

BlackRock, a leading player in the asset management industry, has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 15, 2023, for a Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) known as the "iShares Bitcoin Trust"​1​. Despite the recent regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, BlackRock's application suggests confidence in the asset class and could be seen as a positive sign for the crypto industry​1​.

The BlackRock "iShares Bitcoin Trust" is planning to use data provided by Coinbase's custody services, a collaboration that has been in the works since mid-2022​1​.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO
  • No commitment from SEC to decide by this date: "Last week, the SEC said it needs more time to decide on the recent flurry of spot bitcoin ETF applications, pushing back decisions on filings from BlackRockBLK +0.2%, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Wise Origin, VanEck, Bitwise and Valkyrie Digital Assets at least mid-October." (Forbes)

  • SEC has an endless series of issues to raise:
    “We believe it is quite feasible that the SEC will craft alternative arguments to justify continued rejections of spot bitcoin ETF applications based on concerns specific to the spot bitcoin market,” said Mark Palmer, an analyst at Berenberg Capital Markets. (Financial Times)

  • SEC would need to explain why similar ETFs have not been approved

  • Political instability caused by interest rates, etc. means SEC is unlikely to rock the boat

bought Ṁ300 of NO

Second deadline isn't until mid/late October I think so probably won't hear anything until then.

Many companies have tried for many years (earliest was ~2013?) to get a Bitcoin ETF approved, I don't see why things would be changing now, especially since (1) the proposed ETF is based on spot BTC rather than futures, which is a harder regulatory sell, (2) the SEC is currently in the process of turning the screws on the whole crypto industry.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@jonsimon I agree, though I think that stance could change if Gensler is on the outs which is not improbable.