Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024?
112
80k
resolved Jun 12
Resolved
NO

This question will resolve YES if Mrbeast's main channel is the most subscribed channel, excluding official YouTube channels (YouTube music, gaming etc), at the end of June 1st 2024 (23:59 BST). This question will resolve NO if this is not the case. In a situation where his channel is deleted or disappears, this market will resolve NO.

If you believe 'Mrbeast's main channel' is unclear I will provide further clarification.

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T series has made it to 267M.
Over 9 days at 266M before this claim deadline time and about 4.5 days after before moving to 267M. This indicates that the viewstats estimate was about right. So I think we should stick to that viewstats estimate. Indeed if we were all using it, then it would seem rather perverse to now use something else unless we could see that it was clearly wrong, but it seems as good as we are going to get.

@JakeTeale Resolve please.

@mods Unresponsive creator?

resolved NO. @JakeTeale lmk if you need to contest this resolution, but afaik this was the direction you'd decided

Wow, This really came down to the wire! I cannot believe how close this was. Give me a day or so to resolve this market. If you have information you believe is relevant to resolution please post it below. Although it looks as though the answer is no -Mrbeast did not become the most subscribed YouTube channel before or during June 1st.

@JakeTeale I think we'll never know the true result as I doubt T-Series will allow outside access to their exact subscriber count, but I think resolving to the Viewstats estimate is a reasonable thing to do, given that Viewstats is run by MrBeast and is a decent definitive third party to the market.

Welp, hope you enjoyed my subsidy :p obviously I'd be happy for a confirmation on a third party to see if subscribers are somehow improperly reported, but it looks like it juuust managed to not resolve. That being said, the reported numbers imply that mrbeast will surpass tseries in the next hour at the latest. Absolutely incredible to see how close this is.

@Shifbru They say they have access to Mrbeast account with his permission so hopefully that is accurate enough. T-series is an estimate presumably based on time since going to 266M and rate of increase. We have to use some estimate and why not that one?

@ChristopherRandles obv both of us have vested interest and for lack of known alternative, I would generally agree with that statement, but I suppose the most fair resolution would take into consideration the error margin to our certainty. If the error margin is greater than 64000 subs then may be worth opening up discussion on more refined subscriber reporting or perhaps even consider alternative resolutions.

@Shifbru first to 267?

@Shifbru If you want to take error margin into account then I would suggest that you are saying MrBeast is not " ***the*** most subscribed " but one of the ones in contention so still resolves no. But yes I have vested interest.

@ChristopherRandles also reasonable. but the same argument could be said in reverse for ties: "1st, 1st, 3rd, 4th..."

@ChristopherRandles why wouldn't it resolve as N/A in this scenario? Note: Same happens in legal juries. If there is not enough evidence to convict. The answer becomes simply "I don't know" and there is no resolution.

@Shifbru I don't think this market needs to be held to the same standard of evidence as a criminal trial. People seemed to be betting based off of the available data on Viewstats, so no one was clearly misled.

@dominic the main point here is that N/A is a useful tool that we have at our disposal which can resolve in cases of uncertainty - and it happens fairly often on Manifold :) I think it all comes down to how certain do we want to be that we're resolving correctly.

I'm not the judge on the matter, but considering market resolutions should be fair, clarity that the resolution has been met is a worthwhile thing to consider.

@Shifbru True, but normal users can't even do N/A anymore, mods have to be the ones to N/A. So I think there's a push for less N/A resolutions.

@dominic thanks for noting! Didn't know that wrt users can't N/A :)

Also heard there is a push for less N/A resolutions on manifold, but seems that initiative came more from trying to make sure people have clear resolution criteria. It seems in this case that although the resolution criteria was quite clear, it ended up coming down to a breathtakingly narrow time range. Which also means that in order to make a judgement call, you'll either need better time-resolution, or remain uncertain of the outcome 🤷

At prescribed time:

bought Ṁ5,000 NO

Quite the nail-biter, but it seems that this just barely resolves NO.

@sbares snap

@ChristopherRandles while I was relying on these sites for verification myself, how reliable are they actually? Out of curiosity how to they get subscriber data?

Stress.

bought Ṁ50 NO

market failure (that this wasn't predicted despite 70+ traders)

fun to see though

bought Ṁ500 YES

@Jono3h yeah agree - though mrbeast subscriber rate has dramatically changed in the past days/hours that were not easily predictable. Seems likely some subscriber manipulation/ PR happening. Maybe even to precipitate a mrbeast passes t series party today.

Musk tweet 3 days ago may have caused a jump in rate and then the getting close generates further interest which further increases rate.

It would be funny if t-series has also seen an increase in rate and goes to 267 million before this market closes.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794161292225421505

@ChristopherRandles yeah would agree 😂. I'm screwed if that happens. Putting a lot of risk into this one

@ChristopherRandles really really coming down to the wire

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