Looks quite close either way rn. In the past month the rate the difference is closing by indicates about 4.75 mo to match. This would put the breakeven point in July. This website simple regression seems to also approximate the crossover happening sometime mid July or later https://socialblade.com/youtube/compare/t-series/mrbeast

However as indicated seems like on the last year the rate of mrbeast is 8-9million/mo

The rate for tseries is about 1.9

Moreover mrbeasts channel is historically more prone to positive abrupt movement than tseries over the past year...So it's really difficult to tell where the breakeven will happen.

Leaning towards July rn though

Mr Beast (#2) is gaining on T-Series (#1) at a consistent rate of +8mm per month. Mr beast is currently 29mm behind. Mr Beast should surpass T-Series and become #1 in late April/Early May

@GabeGarboden How many of the past 12 months do you see Mr. Beast having gained 8mm more subscribers than t series?

@BDStraw In the past 6 months Mr Beast gained 64mm subscribers while T-Series only gained 12mm.

https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/mrbeast6000/monthly

https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/tseries/monthly

This is an average net gain of 8mm per month for Mr Beast.

@GabeGarboden Ok thanks for clarifying, I’m not sure I would say there was a consistent rate when almost a third of beast’s subscribers in that period came from October but maybe that’s semantics

Subscriber growth seems pretty linear for both Mr. Beast and T-Series, and a linear extrapolation indicates that one year is nowhere near enough time to catch up (even though it would happen eventually). Sounds like something big would have to happen to get Mr. Beast on top in 2024.

Do you count T-Series and Cocomelon as official channels?

@Arinbjorn No, since they are not owned/operated by YouTube. If T-series, for instance was the most subscribed channel on June 1st then this market would resolve NO.