Donald Trump won the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote by 2.87 million votes. In 2020, he lost the popular vote by 7.06 million votes.

However, if ~42,000 people in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia voted differently the electoral college would have tied. Add ~80,000 voters in Pennsylvania and Donald Trump would still be president - despite losing the popular vote by 6.94 million votes.

Assuming Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, what is the likelihood he does so while losing the popular vote by >5 million votes?

This market will resolve YES if Trump wins the election but loses the popular vote by >5 million votes. This market will resolve NO if he wins the election and loses the popular vote by <5 million votes. It will also resolve NO if he wins the popular vote. If Trump loses the election, it will resolve N/A.