Specifically, will Barbie and Oppenheimer break the current pareto frontier for the top 2 movies weekend domestic gross sales on their opening weekend?
The current pareto frontier is depicted here:
And the data presented in a table:
For example, if both movies open with a box office equivalent to The Little Mermaid ($95.5 M) this market would resolve YES (just barely sneaking in the top left corner!). If one opens at $95M and the other opens at $85M, this point would not surpass the frontier and the market would resolve NO.
The box office data will be sourced from the Domestic tab at https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/
If Barbie or Oppenheimer change their release date such that they do not open on the same day this market will resolve ambiguously.
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Hey @JacobWood , if you have the xls still handy can you show how weird the graph looks now?
Thanks @JacobWood for this kind of market using the Pareto Front! Learned something and enjoyed the guesswork made easier with the image chart!
@SirCryptomind Not sure how they know todays number already, unless it is an estimate. These numbers include the premier day.
Without premier + Including the (alleged) projected numbers for today:
Barbie = $132,700,000
Oppenheimer = $48,690,000
@SirCryptomind I had the same question, either those include presales or they have a crystal ball
@parhizj it's just estimates.
Btw, @SirCryptomind , to be clear, this market is probably going to include preview sales as part of "opening weekend", both since it's the convention and also because boxofficemojo concretely does.
@chilli I figured so. I just do not recall seeing any direct clarification from the creator of the market. But understand it is included in day 1 total anyways.
@jeremiahsamroo Just a heads up that the creator has the largest NO position and bought NO at 98%. I don’t know them, so for all I know they’ll resolve fairly. Just a heads up.
Indeed it seems they will resolve fairly despite their NO position. Kudos to them!
Love this market idea :)
Did some maths for a similar market -- https://manifold.markets/chilli/how-much-will-barbenheimer-make-in#iTubX5Sq2RIQJyypuBsN
Barbie is at 70M, Oppenheimer at 33M (for Fri + previews). Typically combined Sat+Sun sees 1-1.5x multiples of the #1 Fri release take. 1x would be (140, 66) 1.2x would be (154, 72), 1.55x would be (175, 82). Beating the (149,39) seems likely.
@SirCryptomind The 150/75 seems to be the estimate most media sites have updated to firmly. So it'll be close.
Reddish dot = initial projection
Yellow dots = projections provided by @wustep
Black dot = current projected numbers through 07/22/2023
Purple dot = current project numbers with estimates for 07/23/2023
