Background
The Old Farmer's Almanac and NOAA have released their winter forecasts for 2024-2025. For the Pacific Northwest, predictions indicate above-average precipitation and snowfall in the northern regions, with the snowiest periods expected in late December, early January, and early February. The forecast is influenced by expected La Niña conditions, which typically bring wetter and cooler weather to the Pacific Northwest.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if either Seattle or Tacoma records above-average snowfall for the 2024-2025 winter season (measured from first snowfall through the end of winter on March 19, 2025). Snowfall measurements will be based on official National Weather Service data from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The historical average will be determined using the 30-year average snowfall data for the region.
Considerations
Seattle averages about 5 inches of snow annually, while Tacoma typically receives slightly more due to its location and elevation
Microclimates within the Seattle-Tacoma area can result in varying snowfall amounts, but only official NWS measurements will be used for resolution
La Niña conditions can significantly impact winter weather patterns in the Pacific Northwest, though local variations can still occur
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From NWS summaries for Nov 2024 through Mar 2025, I see a total of 2.3 inches of "snow, ice pellets, hail" (all in February). (The March summary doesn't include the most recent few days, but the hourly data here shows no snowfall in those days.)
I haven't located an official NWS source for 30-year average. This site claims their numbers are from sea-tac. The average from the numbers in their graph for 2004-5 through 2023-4 is 6.2 inches. Adding in the 1994-5 and 1995-6 seasons doesn't meaningfully change the average. (Apparently snowfall was not recorded for the intervening years, so I guess this is as close we get to a 30-year average.)