Intention: This market aims to predict the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score of the upcoming film "Bottoms".
The market will close October 1st, 2023, no earlier. Resolution will be based on the RT score when the market closes. Wide release is scheduled for September 1, 2023.
The 'headline' Rotten Tomatoes score will be used.
Note that Rotten tomatoes has a slight rounding UP (Ie, 89.95% -> 90%).
RT is also 'bumpy' as reviews come in, with non-scored reviews sometimes needing manual review to evaluate if they are positive or negative.
The film premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival, and currently has 30 reviews, 29 Fresh, 1 Rotten.
Link to RT page: Bottoms - Rotten Tomatoes
PREMIERED: March 11, 2023
LIMITED RELEASE: August 25, 2023
WIDE RELEASE: September 1, 2023
MARKET CREATION DATE: July 30, 2023
MARKET CLOSE DATE: October 1st, 2023
MARKET RESOLUTION DATE: October 2nd, 2023
Why am I interested in this market: The film received rave reviews in its premiere, and I was lucky enough to see an early screening. Having a sample of early reviews makes this market a bit unusual compared to films that have a review embargo. I want to learn more about how predictions differ when a prior is set.
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@SemioticRivalry did i spell out every variable successfully this time as if i was making a wish from a tricky genie
Okay actually just for fun:
Puts on rules lawyer suit
"Resolution will occur on October 1st, 2023, no earlier."
The description says that /resolution/ occurs on October 1st. However, the Market /closes/ on October 1st, 11:59:00. Does this mean you are comitting to stay up and close the market in the 60 seconds between 11:59:00 and midnight?
@Joshua will adding 'I will resolve on October 1st sometime between the hours of 6:00AM PT and 11:59 PM PT when I am awake.' solve this?
@Joshua How do I do that, technically? I have the oct 1 date locked in when I made the market, so it should “automatically” close right, and then I should clarify that I’ll resolve to whatever score it had at close
So you can set not only the close date, but also the close time. Midnight in your time zone is just the default. And there's no reason that the close date even has to be close to the resolution time, actually.
You could for example have the market close on October 31st, and then in the description just say you will resolve on the evening of September 1st to whatever the score is at 6 PM.
speak now on whether i f'd up the description or forever hold your peace