Who will win the CA-4 house election?

Question

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California#District_4

This resolves yes to the winner of the November election. This is for the general election

Non advancers will resolve no early.

Dashboard to find markets for other California house primaries: https://manifold.markets/news/california-house-elections-2026?r=SmFjazE

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Mike Thompson (D), followed by Eric Jones (D) and Ray Riehle (R) are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of May 23, 2026).

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