Will I run/exercise at least 6 times a week in 2024?
Mini
9
Ṁ248
Dec 31
55%
chance

The question resolves to Yes if I manage to exercise, for at least 30 mins, at least 6 times a week, for the whole of 2024 (but taking into account all other caveats below).

A week is every period 00:00 Mon- 23:59 Sun. The final week of 2024 does not count.

I allow myself to miss on 2 out of 52 weeks (it doesn't matter how many exercise sessions were missed), and, in addition, 4 exercise sessions in total some other times. (That is, the minimum number of hours spend exercising has to be at least 148 = (6*50 - 4)/2). I will post missed weeks/sessions in the comments during the week they happen.

Due to my non-24h circadian rhythm, at most two consecutive "exercise sessions" in question might be joined at times, but generally only when necessary (i.e. less than in 20% of cases - out of all exercise times, at most 20% must be "joined sessions").

The question also allows for extenuating circumstances to be taken into account, such as me being in a hospital. The question of whether circumstances qualify will be left for a third-party (a majority vote between three friends of mine) to decide, who can nevertheless be invested in the market. I will post updates in the comments if such situation arose.

I will trade on this market, but only by buying (and holding) Yes shares.

Background info: in the past, I had been running consistently (4-5 years ago), then stopped almost completely. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments. I will resolve the market as soon as it is possible.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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One missed week 6th-12th May due to conference travel.

One missed day on the 15th of April.

One missed day on the 24th of Feb.

bought Ṁ60 YES

The first month went smoothly, no missed days so far.