The question is about cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, not the regions / "Oblast".
Resolution:
- resolves to YES immediately once an official order to withdraw Russian troops / army / forces from Donetsk AND Luhansk is confirmed by at least 5 reputable sources (please, add sources in comments in this case)
OR
- resolves to YES immediately once Ukraine claim to free Luhansk AND Donetsk is confirmed by at leaset 5 reputable sources (please, add sources in comments), with clear video evidence.
Otherwise resolves to NO on 1st of July 2024.
@NamesAreHard thanks for you your question! For the purpose of the resolution: NO, only the cities are counted.
Initially I wanted to include whole "eastern Ukraine" in the question, but it's just too difficult to make a clear cut resolution for large regions. So I decided on a 2-cities "proxy" prediction: for me, if both cities are free, then what started on 24.02.2022 is completely and officially lost.
Crimea is another interesting question, I need to find links to relevant questions about Crimea and create one if it's not existing yet.
Added resolution. Now I'm thinking: should I reframe the question to "Will Ukraine free Donetsk and Luhansk by 1st of July 2024?"
Not very good initial framing of the question, but now it's not possible to reverse, because bets already made.