Keynesian Beauty Contest / Guess Two-Thirds of the Average
10
107
318
Apr 19
18%
chance

The Keynesian beauty contest works as follows:

  1. Once this question has closed I will release a poll with the buckets as described below

  2. Via the poll, users can pick their forecast for the 'guess two-thirds of the average' game (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guess_2/3_of_the_average).

  3. Once the poll has closed, I will use the midpoint of each bucket and the percentage allocated to each bucket to determine the average.

  4. This market will resolve to a percentage x% (I read this is possible) where:

  5. x = 2/3 * 'poll average' (rounded to the nearest integer)

The separation between the poll and the game ensures that there is no direct adverse selection while the game is running. Specifically, even though other people's guesses can be seen in this question, they won't necessarily be informative for the 1-round game that is represented by the poll.

The poll buckets will start with [0,1), [1,2) and for a general bucket [a,b) have a width of: ROUND_UP(a/10). So a hypothetical bucket with a=21 would have b=24. The buckets will include all numbers in [0,100).

[a,b) refers to a<= x < b.

This is my first question so I will happily adopt any useful feedback from users.

NOTE: I WILL NOT TRADE THIS MARKET MYSELF

Get Ṁ600 play money