Background The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) has been a focal point of energy policy debates. During Trump's first term, a January 2021 lease sale attracted minimal interest, with most bids coming from Alaska's state-owned development corporation rather than major oil companies. A subsequent lease sale in January 2025 received no bids at all, highlighting the economic and logistical challenges of Arctic drilling.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the Trump administration holds at least one lease sale for oil and gas drilling rights in ANWR between January 20, 2025, and January 20, 2029. The sale must be officially announced and conducted by the Department of Interior, regardless of whether it receives any bids. The market will resolve NO if no such lease sale is held during this period.

Considerations

• Major oil companies have shown limited interest in ANWR drilling due to high operational costs, environmental concerns, and reputational risks

• Legal challenges from environmental groups and Native American tribes could affect the administration's ability to conduct lease sales

• Changes in global oil prices and energy market conditions could impact oil companies' interest in Arctic drilling

• The success or failure of previous lease sales may influence the administration's approach to future sales