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Not seeing how he pulls this one off
@AaronBreckenridge Huge surprise to me. I knew he had no legs in the race but I figured he would at least get a mild bump from the media attention
Interesting, he received a surge of support right before the debate, but then it flatlined once the debate took place. I would say that people just didn't like his performance in the debate better than the other candidates, but then I would expect his support to go down rather than staying the same. Maybe the increasing media coverage of him in the lead-up to the debate is what lead to the increase.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1696145630257623174 (just one poll. The outcome depends on the average as per FiveThirtyEight https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
@IsaacKohane So are we going by the number presented by 538's average at the end of the 30th or by the average presented by 538 when polls that where done until the 30th are added?
@IsaacKohane Will you resolve at the value immediately before the first poll extending beyond the 30th is added?
@Reality He’s fluctuated from 10.1 to 9.9 and now back to 10.1. It’ll surprise me if he achieves 10.7 in the next 2.5 days.
@IsaacKohane you can close a market so that there is no after the fact trading and then resolve only once you have verified.