# Isaac King's calibration

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Isaac King bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

10 largest bets for each bucket

1%

- Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?NOṀ10
- Will there be >=100,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022?NOṀ10
- Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th District?NOṀ5
- Will Coinbase be insolvent by the end of 2022?NOṀ5
- Nuclear attack in 2022?NOṀ5
- This market resolves YES unless traders get emotionally involved on both sidesNOṀ1
- Will at least 3 million Americans die from nuclear war in 2022?NOṀ1
- Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022?NOṀ1
- This market will resolve NO on January 1st 2023, unless I need M$.NOṀ1
- Will at least 67,000 people in the U.K. die from nuclear war in 2022?NOṀ1

3%

5%

- Will Destiny beat Factorio Space Exploration before February 1st 2023?NOṀ200
- Will Destiny beat Factorio Space Exploration before February 1st 2023?NOṀ69
- Will Destiny beat Factorio Space Exploration before February 1st 2023?NOṀ50
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ50
- Will Twitter have more than 3 consecutive hours of downtime in 2022?NOṀ50
- Will Destiny stream again on Youtube by the end of January?YESṀ45
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ36
- Will GPT-4 be released by end of year (December 21, 2022)?NOṀ35
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ20
- Will GPT-4 be quietly introduced in ChatGPT?NOṀ20

10%

- Will Destiny beat Factorio Space Exploration before February 1st 2023?NOṀ200
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ200
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ150
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ115
- Will Destiny beat Factorio Space Exploration before February 1st 2023?NOṀ100
- Will Destiny beat Factorio Space Exploration before February 1st 2023?NOṀ100
- Will Manifold beat 538 on midterms predictions?NOṀ100
- The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.YESṀ97
- Will Twitter have more than 3 consecutive hours of downtime in 2022?NOṀ85
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ75

20%

- Will GPT-4 be announced and released before March 1st 2023?NOṀ300
- Will Twitter have more than 3 consecutive hours of downtime in 2022?NOṀ150
- Will Twitter have more than 3 consecutive hours of downtime in 2022?NOṀ105
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ100
- This market resolves YES when 1 = 0NOṀ100
- Will Twitter experience an outage for more than 8 hours by the end of 2022?NOṀ100
- Will Binance becomes insolvent/declares bankruptcy before Jan 31st 2023?NOṀ95
- Will Twitter have more than 3 consecutive hours of downtime in 2022?NOṀ65
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ55
- Will this market have between M$ 7,500 and M$ 12,500 invested at close on 15th of March?NOṀ50

30%

- Split or Steal: Can two randomly-chosen shareholders cooperate?NOṀ400
- Will at least 40 people come to a New Year’s Resolutions live event on the Manifold Discord?NOṀ300
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ215
- Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?YESṀ200
- Will my 69% market ever go below 69% again?YESṀ100
- Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?YESṀ100
- Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?YESṀ100
- Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?YESṀ100
- Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?YESṀ100
- Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?YESṀ100

40%

- Split or Steal: Can two randomly-chosen shareholders cooperate?NOṀ1,000
- Split or Steal: Can two randomly-chosen shareholders cooperate?NOṀ1,000
- Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023NOṀ1,000
- Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023NOṀ500
- Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023NOṀ500
- Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023NOṀ500
- Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?YESṀ500
- Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?YESṀ500
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ300
- Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023NOṀ300

50%

- Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023NOṀ2,000
- Split or Steal: Can two randomly-chosen shareholders cooperate?NOṀ500
- Positive EV bet (1 Week)NOṀ300
- Will Manifold announce the end of mana donations to charity by the end of 2023? [title altered]YESṀ300
- This market exists only to take money from SpindleNOṀ239
- Will at least 200 people claim the manalink I posted in this market description before it expires in a week?YESṀ230
- Positive EV bet (1 Week)NOṀ200
- Will AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials in 2022?YESṀ200
- Split or Steal: Can two randomly-chosen shareholders cooperate?NOṀ175

60%

- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ10,000
- Yet more testingYESṀ1,000
- Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023NOṀ1,000
- Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?YESṀ500
- Will $13,000 be raised by Manifold users for Charity before Dec 15?YESṀ400
- Will Twitter unban Destiny by the end of 2023?YESṀ300
- Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?YESṀ200
- Will Twitter have more than 3 consecutive hours of downtime in 2022?NOṀ200

70%

- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ5,000
- Democrats vs Republicans (1 day only)NOṀ2,100
- Will there be at least 3 more people holding YES shares than holding NO shares at market close?YESṀ1,000
- Will this market be in the interval [22%, 69%] when it closes?NOṀ500
- Will the Manifold community play a game in a Discord call this month?YESṀ463
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2023YESṀ400
- Democrats vs Republicans (1 day only)NOṀ350
- Will $13,000 be raised by Manifold users for Charity before Dec 15?YESṀ347
- If Elon musk's Twitter poll tells him to step down as head of Twitter, will he abide by it?NOṀ300
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?YESṀ300

80%

- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ1,256
- Will the Manifold community play a game in a Discord call this month?YESṀ1,000
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ639
- Will there be at least 3 more people holding YES shares than holding NO shares at market close?YESṀ500
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2023YESṀ500
- GPT-4 #2: Will GPT-4 be at least partially trained with RL?YESṀ475
- Will Putin's popularity rating be higher on December 31, 2022 than his pre-war level (69%)?YESṀ426
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?YESṀ400
- Will I stop creating intentionally controversial markets by the end of February?YESṀ305
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ300

90%

- TestNOṀ5,000
- Will my profit be above Ṁ1,500 by the end of the year?YESṀ1,314
- Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?YESṀ1,000
- Will any of my open markets created before this one have fewer than 5 traders by the end of 2022?YESṀ999
- Will Isaac King incorrectly resolve a market before 2025?YESṀ755
- Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?YESṀ500
- Will the Manifold community play a game in a Discord call this month?YESṀ500
- Will the Manifold community play a game in a Discord call this month?YESṀ500
- Will the Manifold community play a game in a Discord call this month?YESṀ500
- I've baked a cake using a subset of the given ingredients (read description). Resolves YES if someone guesses which in the comments.YESṀ400

95%

- Will the TRAUNCHE POWER in this market outweigh the pampu?YESṀ50,000
- Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?YESṀ3,000
- Will this market have 100 unique traders by the end of 2023?YESṀ1,443
- If I run an MTG tournament on Arena for Manifold, will I get at least 10 entrants?YESṀ1,098
- Will the most popular market have more than 1510 traders by the end of 2022?YESṀ1,000
- Will any Twitter account with at least 200,000 followers tweet a link to a Manifold market before March?YESṀ1,000
- Will the Manifold community play a game in a Discord call this month?YESṀ1,000
- Will the Manifold community play a game in a Discord call this month?YESṀ1,000
- Will Wikipedia display large fundraising banners this year?YESṀ589
- Will Scott Alexander be for or against scandal markets in December?YESṀ515

97%

- Will the TRAUNCHE POWER in this market outweigh the pampu?YESṀ49,000
- Market resolves to NO unless someone has > 20k YES sharesYESṀ7,239
- Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?YESṀ5,727
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?YESṀ5,286
- Will Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023?YESṀ5,000
- Market resolves to NO unless someone has > 20k YES sharesYESṀ4,000
- Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?YESṀ3,614
- Market resolves to NO unless someone has > 20k YES sharesYESṀ3,000
- 39. Will OpenAI release GPT-4 in 2023?YESṀ2,000
- Will Bitcoin price be above $16830 at Dec 9 10pm ET?YESṀ1,000

99%

- Will any user with a "Trustworthy. Ish." badge resolve a market incorrectly by the end of 2023?YESṀ80,000
- Will a LLM of at least GPT-3 caliber be runnable on a mobile phone by April of 2025?YESṀ30,000
- Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?YESṀ20,000
- Will Manifold enable traders to see a summary of their outstanding limit orders by end of 2025?YESṀ10,000
- Will anyone help me find a story I vaguely remember about a mental calculator who thought some numbers "feel wrong"?YESṀ10,000
- Will SirSalty beat Wobbles in round 2 of the Manifold MTG tournament?YESṀ10,000
- Will anyone find an error in an existing blog post of mine within a week?YESṀ10,000
- If/when more manifold bounties are awarded, will anyone get a second bounty?YESṀ10,000
- Will there be at least four mirror matches in the Manifold MTG tournament?YESṀ10,000
- Will CGP Grey release a new video by the end of May?YESṀ10,000