Resolution criteria

Nuvalent will host a webcast and conference call on Monday, November 17, 2025 at 8:00 a.m. ET to discuss topline pivotal data for neladalkib in TKI pre-treated patients with advanced ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer from the ALKOVE-1 Phase 1/2 clinical trial. The market resolves YES if NUVL stock closes at least 7% higher on November 17, 2025 compared to the closing price on November 14, 2025 (the last trading day before the announcement). The market resolves NO if the stock gains less than 7% or declines. Resolution will be verified using closing prices from a major financial data provider such as Yahoo Finance or MarketWatch.

Background

Neladalkib is an investigational brain-penetrant ALK-selective inhibitor designed to remain active in tumors that have developed resistance to first-, second-, and third-generation ALK inhibitors, including tumors with single or compound treatment-emergent ALK mutations such as G1202R. Neladalkib has received breakthrough therapy designation for the treatment of patients with locally advanced or metastatic ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer who have been previously treated with 2 or more ALK tyrosine kinase inhibitors. Preliminary data from the ALKOVE-1 trial showed an objective response rate of 44% (15/34) in advanced ALK-positive solid tumors, including 9/13 patients who were ALK TKI-naïve and 6/21 who were ALK TKI pre-treated.

Considerations

Biotech stock reactions to clinical trial data are highly variable and depend on multiple factors beyond efficacy metrics, including investor expectations, competitive landscape, and market conditions. A 7% threshold is a meaningful but not exceptional move for a clinical-stage biotech company announcing pivotal data. The actual stock movement may be influenced by whether results meet, exceed, or fall short of market consensus expectations, which are not publicly quantified.