Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if ARWR stock closes at least 7% higher on November 18, 2025 compared to its closing price on November 17, 2025. The resolution will be determined using closing prices from Yahoo Finance or MarketWatch. If the market does not open on November 18, the market resolves N/A.

Background

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for plozasiran to treat familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), a severe and rare genetic disease, with an FDA PDUFA action date of November 18, 2025. In the Phase 3 PALISADE trial, plozasiran achieved an 80% median reduction in triglycerides and an 83% reduction in acute pancreatitis risk compared to placebo. FCS currently has no FDA-approved treatments.

Considerations

The FDA indicated it is not currently planning to hold an advisory committee meeting, which typically signals a more straightforward review pathway. Stock price movements on PDUFA dates depend on market expectations relative to the actual outcome—approval may already be priced in, or the market may react based on the strength of the approval decision or any label restrictions.