Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if AEON Biopharma (AEON) stock closes at or above $0.968 on November 19, 2025 (representing a gain of more than 9.5% from the previous close). This market resolves NO if the stock closes below $0.968 on that date.

Resolution will be verified using closing price data from AEON's trading data on November 17, 2025, when the stock closed at $0.88, making the 9.5% threshold $0.968. Official closing prices can be verified through financial data providers such as Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AEON/) or CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AEON).

Background

AEON has an FDA Type 2a meeting scheduled for November 19, 2025, to review the company's analytical development plan and initial data for ABP-450. The company has submitted positive biosimilarity data to the FDA ahead of the meeting, confirming identical amino-acid sequencing and highly similar functional characteristics between ABP-450 and BOTOX. The U.S. therapeutic neurotoxin market exceeds $3.0 billion annually, representing a major opportunity for biosimilar entry.

Considerations

The question asks about stock movement on November 18, but the FDA meeting is scheduled for November 19, 2025. Market reaction to the meeting outcome would likely occur after the meeting concludes and results are announced, potentially on November 19 or later. Any significant stock movement on November 18 would depend on pre-meeting speculation or leaked information rather than official meeting results.