Will I decide that there is a better place to live than Iceland?
12
53
230
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

I intend to emmigrate from the United States. Iceland currently looks like the best choice, but I haven't made any commitments as yet.

Some things (roughly ordered) I want out of where I live:

  • strong protections of human rights

  • permissive societal norms

  • technologically savvy populace

  • decent public transportation

  • significant immigrant populations

  • economicly free

  • sufficient welfare

  • a clear path to citizenship

  • reasonable political representation while a noncitizen

  • unlikely to go to war or be significantly endangered by war

  • geologically stable (iceland is obviously not the best here)

There's more things, but that's enough to be getting on with.

This is mostly for my personal calibration, but I am of course open to suggestions.

Edit/clarification: This market will resolve based on where I plan to live at the time of market close. I don't need to actually emmigrate or anything like that.

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boughtṀ100YES

@acc gets trolled

Significant immigrant populations

Doesn't Iceland not meet this criterion? It's a very homogenous country.

Also, consider the low population. Decent public transportation will not get you very far if there's just not that much to around.

predicted NO

@Shump The population is something like 10% Polish - while that's hardly burgenioning with diversity, it's not nothing. Likewise I'm not fussed about number of people, see below :)

How do you feel about never experiencing summer again? I am currently suffering because of this in Canada where the weather is milder. You can fly to Malaga or something if you need warmth but it’s not the same thing imo

Also: food is mostly imported so it's expensive and poor quality compared to southern Europe or Asia

predicted NO

@mariopasquato I'm not fond of tempetures over 25°C or so, and the populated regions are quite a bit warmer in the winter than Maine.

The food consideration is valid.

predicted NO

Updated description to clarify resolution. I am a bit baffled the YES bets without presenting anything that might change my mind, and want to make sure I've communicated clearly!

predicted NO

@Imuli Where do you currently intend to live?

predicted NO

@JohnSmithb9be Iceland - If I were to resolve this market now, it would resolve no.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Roughly where do you currently live? How large is your current city?

I quite like many of the factors you've listed above, but I have trouble selling myself on moving somewhere where the largest city has 130,000 people and there are only ~300,000. The nearest metro >1,000,000 people is just barely under 1,000 miles away (Dublin).

Given you are on Manifold, you likely have somewhat odd beliefs and I assume it is much easier to find like minded people if there's lots of people around.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

@RobertCousineau (one note: the capital region of Iceland has 230,000 people. I mistakenly used metro pop for Dublin but City Limits pop for Reykjavik)

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau I currently live in rural Maine :) Maine is about the same size as Iceland with about three times the people. Reykjavík feels like a very reasonable city to me.

predicted YES

@Imuli fair! How often do you find yourself traveling to Boston for 'big city' type things? Do you feel like your work benefits from being in a time zone aligned with where you live?

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau It's been some years (8?) since I went to Boston regularly. My current work is international/fully remote - though working in Iceland is one of the easier immigration options for me.

predicted YES

@Imuli I'll sell down half my position then - seems you've thought of all the basics!

how about Australia ?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@Odoacre Everything down there is poisonous, and my friends from there gripe about internet censorship issues. Still better than Russia.

predicted NO

@JohnSmithb9be Agreed on both counts. Though I don't care that much about the poisonous fauna and flora :)

sold Ṁ5 of YES

@Imuli thoughts on NZ? Seems like there is less governmental dysfunction than AU, more people, equally beautiful to IS, super easy immigration, welfare, high peace index, technolically literate populace, etc. Also it has both more rural and more populated areas than Iceland.

predicted NO

@RobertCousineau New Zealand definitely made the short list! I've been seeing some talk about immigration reform after COVID... and they do significantly more ongoing humans rights issues. I have some hesitancy with what the legislative future will be like with them being part of the five eyes. Not out of the question but pretty far from better :)