Imbens's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.3
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Imbens bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will any of the vault tracks on Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) be commonly understood to be about John Mayer?NOṀ100
- Will I continue going to the gym at least 4-5 days per week through the end of March?YESṀ70
- Will there be a Caltrain delay causing us to arrive to school after 9:30am by October 12, 2022?YESṀ70
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%