Will 2024 be the hottest year in the last 25 years
78
18k
2025
77%
chance

Yes if the avg temp is higher than the previous 25years

Get Ṁ600 play money
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"previous 25 years" including 2023?

predicts YES

On average the temperature is surely increasing, but the yearly average temp tends to be a bit of a sawtooth/zigzag where on the years that it sets a record, it increases more, whereas non-record years are only slightly cooler.
So 50-60% seems reasonable to me, so I bid it down.

I also recalled another market where I think I could do a bit of arbitrage against it, and hence avoid a ruinous outcome.