Is 'Neuro-Cognitive Friction' the primary Great Filter stopping multi-planetary expansion?
Description Body
The Fermi Paradox is not a physics problem. It is a systems problem.
Most existential risk models assume civilizations are filtered out by external entropy (nuclear war, asteroids, AGI misalignment).
BUT... they ignore the thermodynamics of intelligence itself. As a civilization scales its technological complexity (Type 0 → Type I), the "entropy of communication" increases faster than the velocity of innovation.
THEREFORE, the civilization hits a "Cognitive Bifurcation Point":
The Builders (Monotropic / Deep Focus minds) are forced to run on The Bureaucracy's (Polytropic / High Noise) operating system.
This mismatch creates a "Cognitive Tax" estimated at 2.35 billion lost man-hours annually in the U.S. alone.
The system burns out its outlier talent before they can solve the energy constraints required to leave the gravity well.
BUT... this means the Great Filter is already active. It is the invisible friction inside our own engineering teams. We are filtering ourselves out because we lack the "Neuro-Operational Scaffolding" to let Monotropic minds build at scale without burning out.
THE SIMULATION I have coded a Monte Carlo simulation (n=10,000) that models this "Expanded Double Empathy Problem" applied to Type I civilizations.
Result: 99.63% of civilizations stagnate due to "Neuro-Cognitive Friction."
Proof: The code is open-source and attached below.
THE SOURCE CODE (PROOF OF WORK) https://gist.github.com/Landers15/d476bdc6d2a1cf7fcfc8a5149123d3b9
RESOLUTION CRITERIA This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2025, any of the following occur:
Elon Musk (or a verified xAI/SpaceX executive) publicly acknowledges "Neuro-Cognitive Friction," "Cognitive Entropy," or this specific simulation.
Elon Musk replies to the creator (The Clarity Catalyst) on X.
xAI or SpaceX interviews the creator to discuss the "Neuro-Operational Scaffolding" solution.
I am betting YES because the physics of the problem are undeniable. The only variable is how long we ignore it.
1,000