Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if a strike or job action by Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) employees results in the cancellation or significant disruption of scheduled train service during the morning rush hour (defined as 6:00 AM to 10:00 AM Eastern Time) on Monday, May 18, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined by official service announcements from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) or reports from major news outlets (e.g., The New York Times, Newsday, or major New York City television stations). If service operates as scheduled or disruptions are unrelated to a labor strike/job action, the market resolves to NO.

Background

The Long Island Rail Road is the busiest commuter railroad in North America. Labor relations at the LIRR involve multiple unions and are subject to the Railway Labor Act, which includes complex mediation and cooling-off periods before a legal strike can occur. Traders should monitor official MTA LIRR service advisories for real-time information regarding status and labor updates.