This market resolves based on whether a replication attempt of the original study reproduces the original findings; or not.

Background

A recent study published in Chemosphere found that flame retardants (FRs) were present in 85% of analyzed household products, with concentrations up to 22,800 mg/kg. These chemicals, including brominated flame retardants (BFRs) and organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), are commonly used in electronics but can pose health risks including carcinogenicity, endocrine disruption, and neurotoxicity. The study suggests these chemicals are entering household items through recycled electronic waste plastics.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on whether a replication study of Liu et al. (2024) is conducted and published by December 31, 2029, and its findings. Specifically:

• Resolves N/A if this other question resolves to NO

• Resolves YES if:

  1. The replication study finds flame retardants in ≥70% of tested household items, AND

  2. The replication study finds maximum concentrations of flame retardants at least similar to or greater than those found in the original study (above 20,000 mg/kg)

• Resolves NO if a replication study is published but finds flame retardants in <70% of items OR finds significantly lower concentrations