The DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission tests the effect of impacting a spacecraft into an asteroid to slightly change its trajectory - as a test of a scenario in which we redirect an asteroid that is on a collision course towards Earth. Yesterday, it successfully impacted Dimorphos.

When it hit the asteroid, it transfers its momentum, but the impact also kicks up a cloud of debris which expands in the opposite direction, which enhances the momentum transfer of the collision. See https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2022/9/22/the-science-behind-nasas-first-attempt-at-redirecting-an-asteroid/. The "momentum enhancement factor" is the ratio between how much momentum is transferred, and the momentum that would be transferred if the impactor was just swallowed by the asteroid in a perfectly inelastic collision. So the ratio is 1x in that case, and could be higher if it kicks a lot of debris in the reverse direction. How big this factor is depends a lot on the surface composition of the asteroid.

Resolves YES if the momentum enhancement factor is measured at >2, NO if it's measured at <2. If estimates are published as a range/confidence interval, will most likely use the median estimate. If there are multiple estimates, I may take the median of them. If there is too much uncertainty, resolve N/A.

The market will remain open until estimates are published that reasonably answer the question, or end of 2023.The DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission tests the effect of impacting a spacecraft into an asteroid to slightly change its trajectory - as a test of a scenario in which we redirect an asteroid that is on a collision course towards Earth. Yesterday, it successfully impacted Dimorphos.

When it hit the asteroid, it transfers its momentum, but the impact also kicks up a cloud of debris which expands in the opposite direction, which enhances the momentum transfer of the collision. See https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2022/9/22/the-science-behind-nasas-first-attempt-at-redirecting-an-asteroid/. The "momentum enhancement factor" is the ratio between how much momentum is transferred, and the momentum that would be transferred if the impactor was just swallowed by the asteroid in a perfectly inelastic collision. So the ratio is 1x in that case, and could be higher if it kicks a lot of debris in the reverse direction. How big this factor is depends a lot on the surface composition of the asteroid.

Resolves YES if the momentum enhancement factor is measured at >2, NO if it's measured at <2. If estimates are published as a range/confidence interval, will most likely use the median estimate. If there are multiple estimates, I may take the median of them. If there is too much uncertainty, resolve N/A.

The market will remain open until estimates are published that reasonably answer the question, or end of 2023.